Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
